Non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) are becoming an integral part of MNO’s connectivity strategy – MWC saw news of multiple partnerships between MNOs and satellite constellation providers. Woo-hoo, says the industry – global coverage? Tick.

Untick: only if they can pay.

Of course, they’re not going to replace terrestrial networks – despite what some may claim - but they do offer an increasingly practical complement – supporting coverage in remote regions, delivering value for maritime and military use cases and, of course, providing connectivity for more valuable applications, like IoT.

And they are central to the 6G vision. Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, which sets out the “Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond” has this to say on the subject of connectivity:

“IMT-2030 is expected to include affordable connectivity and, at minimum, basic broadband services with extended coverage, including sparsely populated areas.”

Ubiquitous connectivity is central to achieving this – and satellites integral to meeting that goal. All well and good – and the gathering momentum in the NTN business is a clear sign that these alternative options will be in-place and ready when 6G starts to come around.

But whether it will really be affordable in those remotely populated areas and a truly viable solution for the subscribers whom this coverage is supposed to benefit is an entirely different matter. Perhaps, but probably not – without significant subsidies.

Not just about the coverage gap

Regardless, it’s clear that there is a big need for NTNs. For example, according to the GSMA’s ‘State of Mobile Internet Connectivity 2025’ report, around 96% of the global population has access to mobile internet connectivity.

While that’s impressive, it still means that the remaining 4% accounts for around 300 million people, most of whom reside in remote, sparsely populated and hard-to-reach geographies. It means that building terrestrial infrastructure in such areas is commercially prohibitive.  There may be a remedy for this – but will this business add up in terms of paying customers?

Perhaps more promisingly, however, satellite connectivity is being driven as an alternative backhaul strategy, and by the explosion of IoT devices and a growing number of consumer direct-to-device (D2D) satellite-capable smartphones and services. Improved satellite economics and performance are supporting this growth.

This seems to be much more promising.

Rapid growth in LEO satellite launches for NTNs

According to GSMA Intelligence, the number of LEO satellites will be 10 times greater by 2030 than it was in 2020, and by 2027 the number of total LEO satellites will surpass 10,000. It lists consumer roaming, IoT / industrial, and emergency / disaster response as significant driving use cases.

Of course, these are reliant on there being sufficient demand to make it economically viable – so it remains to be seen whether entire oceans and polar regions, for example, will be covered by satellite connectivity. Well, perhaps they will – but who will pay?

As of the end of September 2025, 110 operators and operator groups (67% of the global mobile market by connections) had active partnerships with one or more satellite players, suggesting that MNOs are increasingly engaged. The number of operators with live satellite services also nearly doubled from 16 to 28 in a year. Asia/Pacific, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America are driving the market.

The figures also note that Japan’s KDDI already has 1 million customers using satellite connectivity, while One New Zealand estimates that 1 million SMS messages have been sent via this channel.

Indian operators, on the other hand, are focusing on using it to provide backhaul to remote regions, highlighting its versatility and importance in providing links to remote regions. It means that operators could use more cost-effective satellite connectivity to connect new, localised terrestrial RAN infrastructure to the rest of their networks.

This idea is, of course, not new. We worked on solutions to do just this with 4G more than 10 years ago now. Tech has moved on but the principles of connecting remote islands of terrestrial coverage via satellite remain the same.

Furthermore, the number of D2D services (excluding satellite broadband) offered by operators grew from 45% in 2024 to 58% a year later. However, there are still challenges around penetration performance, within buildings for example. So, satellite D2D may be used as a complementary connection service alongside terrestrial-based options but it won’t replace them, as this helpful article argues.

Did they interview the right consumers?

GSMA Intelligence estimates an ARPU uplift of as much as 8%, but predicts the potential to reach 20% as consumers demand ubiquitous coverage. Again, this revenue opportunity sounds promising, but can those in remote areas really pay sufficient to support this? To calculate the numbers, GSMA interviewed consumers in 10 countries – but are those the ones that really need satellite to give a boost to remote connectivity?

Ookla, meanwhile, reckons that, even though in the UK, D2D users have shot up, usage hasn’t followed the same curve. Coverage is surely nice to have, but that doesn’t mean that extended access will follow – at least not for consumer applications.

And it definitely doesn’t translate to a perceived willingness to pay into actual cash. Perhaps those announcements are all about marketing?

At the same time, enterprises, often suffering daily operational disruptions due to unreliable connectivity, represent a further market, which GSMA analysts estimate could add $10 billion in revenue by 2035. On top of that, they factor in the financial opportunity offered by up to 2 billion IoT connections supported by satellite.

The development and advance of standards is supporting satellite NTN growth

A key driver for recent activity here, has been the development of standards and here the stars aligned over recent years to support the potential market. That’s great, because we clearly need standardisation to drive interop and to support vendor offers. That’s just, well, standard for the mobile industry – and the slow work to standardise NTNs will provide a foundational template for future activities – we just need to work out where the money is.

To recap, 3GPP outlined the first standards for 5G New Radio and Narrowband IoT over non-terrestrial networks in Release 17, completed in 2022. It introduced the first standards for D2D connectivity.

Since then, Release 18 (5G Advanced 2023–2025) has introduced performance enhancements for IoT and D2D services. The aim for 2026 and 2027 is on practical implementation of NTN standards, such as NB-IoT versus LTE Cat-1 as the protocol used and a focus on managing protocol costs for IoT devices.

Releases 19 and 20 will focus on 6G standardisation and its requirements, with the aim of completing Release 21 for 6G standards by 2028. Before that, there is significant promise for standards-based satellite IoT, which would enable services to emerge from trials into operational production.

These standards are being designed with the aim of fully integrating NTNs into terrestrial networks now, and with 6G in mind.

In addition, IMT-2030 will require satellite NTNs, including high-altitude platform stations, as well as LEO and GEO (Geostationary Equatorial Orbit) technologies, high-precision positioning (1–10cm), support for Massive IoT, satellite 6G, and a focus on D2D smartphones. With the evolution of standards for satellite NTNs, momentum is only likely to accelerate.

However, NTNs do not represent a panacea – despite the hype. Rather, satellite connectivity will likely thrive due to specific use cases, driven by the needs of different industries, like agricultural, environmental monitoring, and energy applications – but for every use case, there must be someone willing to pay. That’s probably not going to be you or me.